The 2026 Coastal Reset: What's Really Happening From Cannon Beach to Pacific City

If you own property on the North Oregon Coast, you've probably noticed something unusual happening over the past 12 months.

• Some neighborhoods are selling faster than ever. Others are sitting longer. Prices in one town are climbing while the community 15 minutes south is seeing corrections. Short-term rental owners are asking hard questions. Long-time homeowners are quietly reassessing.

• This isn't a uniform market anymore. It's a mosaic of micro-markets moving in different directions—and understanding those differences matters more now than it has in years.

• Let's walk through what's actually happening from Cannon Beach to Pacific City, why timing and psychology are playing bigger roles than ever, and what this means if you're thinking about buying, selling, or simply holding coastal property in 2026.

The Coastal Market Is No Longer One Story

For years, the Oregon Coast real estate narrative was simple: demand was high, inventory was low, and prices were climbing. The pandemic accelerated that trend. Remote work made coastal living viable. Second-home buying surged. Short-term rental income looked attractive.

But 2026 is different.

The coastal market has fractured into distinct micro-markets, each responding to its own set of pressures: regulatory changes, price corrections, new development, demographic shifts, and evolving buyer priorities.

Here's what that looks like on the ground:

• Cannon Beach is experiencing a moderate price correction and adjusting to new ownership cost realities

• Gearhart is one of the fastest-selling markets in Oregon with strong price momentum

• Manzanita is highly competitive with homes moving in under two weeks

• Warrenton is absorbing major new development aimed at workforce housing

• Pacific City is attracting second-home buyers through community-driven lifestyle projects

  
  

Same coastline. Completely different market conditions.

Cannon Beach: Recalibration, Not Collapse

Median Sale Price: $950,000

Year-Over-Year Change: Down 14.4% (calendar year 2024 vs 2025, residential detached/attached/condos, excluding fractional ownership)

Days on Market: 88.5 (increasing)

Vacant for Seasonal Use: ~67%

Cannon Beach has long been the crown jewel of the North Coast—and it still is. But the market dynamics have shifted.

The 14.4% year-over-year price decline signals a recalibration after the 2021–2022 surge. Many of the sellers feeling pressure today purchased near the market peak. Those owners are now facing a decision: hold through the adjustment or exit while substantial equity still exists.

What's driving the shift?

• High seasonal vacancy rates. Two-thirds of Cannon Beach homes sit vacant most of the year. That's a lot of capital tied up in underutilized assets.

• Rising costs of ownership. Flood insurance premiums have increased due to a 23% flood risk designation. Clatsop County introduced a 3% transient room tax (a tax on overnight lodging stays). Maintenance, property management, and utilities continue to climb.

• Short-term rental regulation uncertainty. Discussions around "Lease to Locals" programs and tightening short-term rental policies are creating hesitation among investor-owners.

The psychology at play:

Homeowners who bought for lifestyle are asking whether they're actually using the home enough to justify the expense. Investors are running new return-on-investment calculations and coming up short. Downsizers and baby boomers who've held properties for decades are seeing an opportunity to capture long-term gains—even with the recent correction—and simplify.

This isn't panic selling. It's strategic reconsideration.

Gearhart: The Resilience Outlier

Median Sale Price: $894,250

Year-Over-Year Change: Up 10.4%

Days on Market: 41

Sale-to-List Ratio: 99.7%

While Cannon Beach adjusts, Gearhart is thriving.

This is the only coastal community to rank among Oregon's top 30 fastest-selling cities—a remarkable distinction for a small beach town. Homes are moving quickly, often at or above asking price, and sellers are capturing strong equity.

Why is Gearhart different?

• Desirability without the volatility. Gearhart offers the same coastal lifestyle appeal as Cannon Beach but with less tourist density and a stronger year-round community feel.

• Non-transferable short-term rental licenses. New buyers can't simply assume existing short-term rental operations, which has shifted demand toward primary and second-home buyers who value the location over income potential.

• Strong local infrastructure. Proximity to schools, shopping, and amenities makes Gearhart attractive to families and retirees, not just vacationers.

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The opportunity:

For sellers, Gearhart represents one of the strongest leverage positions on the coast right now. Upsizers can convert equity into larger homes. Retirees can sell high-value properties and relocate to lower-cost areas with significant capital freed up.

For buyers, competition is real—but so is the long-term stability of the market.

Manzanita: The Competitive Seller's Market

Redfin Compete Score: 74 (Very Competitive)

Days on Market: 36

Median List Price: $912,450

Manzanita is operating at a completely different speed than Cannon Beach. Homes are selling in as little as 12 days when priced correctly, and buyers are moving decisively.

What's creating the urgency?

• Limited inventory. Manzanita has always been a smaller market, and available homes move fast.

• Strong buyer demand. The town appeals to second-home buyers who want a quieter, less commercialized coastal experience.

• Short-term rental license considerations. New short-term rental licenses in Manzanita are non-transferable upon sale. This means existing owners who've built short-term rental operations can't pass those licenses to buyers, which is prompting some strategic sellers to exit while buyer demand remains strong.

The timing question:

For sellers, the competitive environment is favorable—but only if the home is positioned correctly. Overpricing in a fast market can backfire quickly. Buyers are informed, and they're comparing options carefully.

For those considering a sale, the current conditions reward preparation, not hesitation.

Warrenton: The Growth Equation

Warrenton is in the middle of a housing expansion unlike anything else on the North Coast.

Key developments:

• Fort Point: A large-scale project adding approximately 200 housing units, including single-family homes and build-to-rent properties aimed at teachers, nurses, Coast Guard personnel, and local workforce families. Construction is slated to begin in Q2 2026.

• The Roosevelt: A custom-built subdivision with homes ranging from the mid-$400s to mid-$500s, targeting affordability and quality for full-time residents.

What does this mean for existing homeowners?

New development brings both opportunity and pressure. It increases market visibility and draws new residents to the area. But it also introduces fresh inventory, which can shift pricing dynamics depending on how quickly the market absorbs new construction.

For sellers in Warrenton, understanding how new construction affects positioning is critical. For buyers, it opens access to modern, move-in-ready homes at price points that are increasingly rare on the coast.

Pacific City: The Lifestyle Investment Play

Pacific City is carving out its own identity as a second-home and lifestyle destination.

What's happening:

• Nestucca Ridge Development is offering a mix of move-in-ready homes, buildable lots, and fractional ownership cottages in the Pacific Seawatch community. The project emphasizes ocean and river views, clubhouse access, and a sense of shared community.

  
  

Who's buying?

Second-home buyers who value flexibility, community, and a less tourist-heavy coastal experience. Fractional ownership also provides a lower-barrier entry point for buyers who want coastal access without full ownership responsibilities.

Pacific City isn't competing on speed or volume—it's competing on lifestyle alignment.

What This Means for Sellers

If you own coastal property and you're evaluating whether 2026 is a hold year or a sell year, here's the framework:

Ask yourself:

• How often am I actually using this property? If it's sitting vacant 8+ months a year, the financial efficiency question becomes unavoidable.

• What are my total carrying costs? Insurance, taxes, maintenance, management fees, and opportunity cost all matter.

• What's happening in my specific micro-market? Cannon Beach dynamics are not Gearhart dynamics. Positioning depends entirely on location.

• Am I holding for lifestyle or investment? If the answer has shifted, your strategy should shift too.

• What's my exit timeline? Waiting for a recovery that may take years versus selling strategically now with equity intact.

Seller psychology in 2026 is less about distress and more about clarity. The homeowners making moves are the ones asking better questions.

What This Means for Buyers

If you're considering a coastal purchase, this is one of the more nuanced buying environments in recent memory.

The opportunity:

• Cannon Beach offers a more balanced negotiation environment than we've seen in years—though it's not a buyer's market in the traditional sense.

• Gearhart rewards speed and decisiveness with long-term stability.

• Manzanita requires preparation and realistic expectations around competition.

• Warrenton provides accessible entry points with modern construction and growing community infrastructure.

• Pacific City appeals to buyers who prioritize lifestyle and flexibility over pure appreciation plays.

The key is aligning your priorities with the right micro-market—and understanding what you're actually buying into.

Final Thought: Markets Reward Understanding

The 2026 coastal market isn't confusing—it's just specific.

Cannon Beach is adjusting. Gearhart is accelerating. Manzanita is competitive. Warrenton is expanding. Pacific City is building community-driven value.

The homeowners and buyers who win in this environment are the ones who understand the differences, ask the right questions, and make decisions based on data and timing—not emotion or outdated assumptions.

Each of these communities is facing its own unique challenges, and how they're responding is not uniform. That's the story to follow through the coming years.

If you own property on the North Coast, now is the time to assess where you stand. If you're thinking about buying, now is the time to understand what you're stepping into.

The coastal reset is real. And it's not happening the same way everywhere.

Want a deeper dive into your specific market or property situation? Let's talk strategy. Comment below or send me a DM—I'd be glad to walk through what's happening in your neighborhood and what it means for your next move.